I Guess We're Trying This Again, Huh?

Democratic nominee for Ohio governor is recycling an anti-trans strategy that didn't work two years ago, there's no evidence it will work this year either.

Late in the 2022 election, with his Senate seat on the line, Democratic stalwart Sherrod Brown tried to distance himself from the pro-transgender position of much of the Democratic party, saying that trans girls had already been banned in the state.

Brown spent millions in ads trying to prove himself to be anti-trans in the face of a deluge of attacks from his Republican opponent. Brown lost his seat by 4%. Not to be outdone, Colin Allred took an even harder line against trans rights in his race for US Senate out of Texas, full on misgendering trans girls.

“Let me be clear: I don’t want boys playing girls’ sports, or any of this ridiculous stuff Ted Cruz is saying,” Allred said in an ad during the election cycle two years ago. Allred got shellacked by the least popular GOP Senator in the country.

Throughout the 2024 cycle, purple and red state Democrats tried to tack to the right on trans issues, confusing opponent attack ads with popular support from the voter base. None of them won.

But this year, Amy Acton thinks it will work for her this time. Recent polling shows Acton in a toss up with billionaire and GOP hanger on Vivek Ramaswamy.

Acton has a serious chance at winning in Ohio, a former purple state that Democrats have been trying to win back for decades. However, late last month, Acton came out with a viciously transphobic statement against trans athletes.

In a June 30 interview, Acton stated, "I do not support boys playing in girls sports. This is already settled law in Ohio, and as governor I will enforce and uphold the law."

By "boys," Acton meant trans girls, as she leaned fully into accepting the conservative framing of the entirety of the "trans debate". If Acton truly believes trans girls are really boys, and trans women are really men, then there's no excuse for her to enforce or try to pass any trans equality laws.

By accepting the conservative framing here, she has, perhaps unknowingly, painted herself into a policy corner she now cannot escape from. Please God, someone get these Democrats to consider hiring even one trans person for the comms or policy teams.

But not content with alienating the most strident parts of her base, along with thousands of already politically abandoned families with trans children, the Ohio Democratic party took things to the next level.

The Ohio Democratic Progressive Caucus issued a striking statement criticizing Acton, before hastily taking it down without explanation.

According to reporting from Erin Reed at Erin in the Morning, the group took it down after the state party demanded it be taken down. Reed characterizes this as banning criticism of Acton over trans rights.

But no amount of heavy handed party manipulation will heal the wound delivered by the candidate. Trans people have no choice but to vote for Democrats in the hope that the party's politicians will make life slightly easier.

Polling has consistently shown that though Democrats are often very underwater on trans issues, these issues have the lowest salience to swing voters. In other words, there are no squishy anti-trans voters. If someone is basing their votes on which candidate most hates trans people, Democrats will never ever win these people over and it's simply delusional to think they can.

But there are plenty of nominally Democratic voters who will turn out to vote, volunteer, and donate to a candidate who they can trust to protect trans people whenever possible.

Democrats know this and consistently take these voters for granted, instead choosing to punch left in an often futile attempt to win centrist or center right votes.

It never really works, but they keep trying anyway.

Eventually, these pro-trans voters will just stop showing up, and there are enough to swing a close election. Democratic candidates should beware of this and act accordingly.